We predicted a three-way championship fight back in January. Nine months later, that is exactly what we have got. With six rounds remaining, the 2025 Formula 1 World Championship is as close and unpredictable as any in recent memory.
The Standings
The exact points positions will fluctuate, but the broad picture is clear: Verstappen leads by a margin of fewer than 30 points over Hamilton, with Norris a further 20 behind. In practical terms, three drivers can realistically win this championship, and the gap between first and third could be eliminated in a single bad weekend.
Why Verstappen Still Leads
Verstappen’s consistency has been extraordinary. He has not won as frequently as in his championship-winning years, but his points accumulation - with very few DNFs or off-days - has kept him at the front even when Ferrari or McLaren have taken victories.
The Red Bull RB21 has been at its best on the more technical circuits. The high-speed layouts and power-sensitive tracks where Red Bull’s aerodynamic efficiency pays dividends have given Verstappen his clearest margins.
Hamilton’s Ferrari Journey
The question around Hamilton was never whether he is fast enough - it was whether he could adapt quickly enough to a new car, a new team, and a new culture. The answer, by this point in the season, is unambiguously yes.
Hamilton has won four races in 2025. His performances in the wet have been particularly outstanding, and the relationship with Ferrari’s engineering team has developed into something genuinely effective. This does not feel like a driver managing decline - it feels like a driver motivated by a new challenge.
Norris: The X Factor
Lando Norris has taken the most race victories of any of the three title contenders in 2025. The problem has been scoring points on the weekends when the McLaren has not been at its best. A spin on the opening lap in Singapore and a mechanical failure in Singapore cost points that look costly in retrospect.
If Norris can clean up his error rate through the final six rounds while continuing to win when the MCL39 is in its sweet spot, the championship is genuinely within reach.
The Six Remaining Rounds
The 2025 title fight will be settled across the United States Grand Prix, Mexico City, Sao Paulo, Las Vegas, Qatar, and Abu Dhabi. Las Vegas suits Verstappen; Sao Paulo’s unpredictable weather favours Hamilton’s wet-weather mastery; Qatar’s high-speed layout has historically suited Red Bull.
Our Revised Prediction
Verstappen wins it by fewer than fifteen points. Hamilton finishes second in the championship. Norris third. It will probably be decided in the final round in Abu Dhabi. Set your reminders now.
