It has come down to this. The 2025 Formula 1 World Championship will be decided at Yas Marina this weekend, with Max Verstappen holding a 14-point lead over Lewis Hamilton heading into the final round of the season. Twenty-six races, nine months of racing, and it ends here.
What Each Driver Needs
The points system in Formula 1 awards 25 for a victory, 18 for second place, 15 for third. With a 14-point gap, the permutations are complex but the headline is simple: if Hamilton wins the race, Verstappen must finish fourth or better to take the title. If Verstappen finishes on the podium, Hamilton cannot overhaul him regardless of the result.
This is not a situation where a driver can play safe. Strategy, tyre management, and the decisions made under pressure will all matter enormously.
The Circuit
Yas Marina is a purpose-built street circuit around the Yas Marina development on Yas Island in Abu Dhabi. It has been redesigned in recent years and is now considerably faster than its original layout, with several of the tighter hairpins that characterised the old circuit replaced by flowing, high-speed sections.
The circuit is neither Verstappen nor Hamilton’s definitive happy hunting ground - it is relatively neutral, which may ultimately mean the faster car wins rather than driver guile overcoming machinery.
What History Tells Us
2021 at Yas Marina. The most controversial finale in living memory, with the title changing hands on the penultimate lap of the final race. Both drivers involved in that race are on the grid this weekend - one of them is about to win the championship again.
Lando Norris
Norris, mathematically eliminated from the championship, will race as an independent actor. Who does he help? Nobody - he will race for McLaren’s result and his own pride. But where he finishes affects the secondary battle between Verstappen and Hamilton, and both camps will be watching the McLaren closely.
Our Final Prediction
Verstappen wins the championship. He does not need to win the race - he just needs to finish fourth. His experience of managing a championship lead in a final round, and Red Bull’s precision in these situations, gives him the slight edge.
But this is Formula 1, and particularly Abu Dhabi. Expect the unexpected.
Whatever happens - it has been a brilliant season. Enjoy the race.
